Unreconciled IRR
The text states 23–26%; the cash-flow sequence presented produces approximately 83–85%.
Investment overview
Investment
with gates.
The opportunity is industrial. Capital must be protected through evidence, phasing, control and a reconciled financial basis.
01 / CAPITAL
Current estimate
USD 44.415 million is a promoter estimate. It is not yet a construction price.
CAPEX needs a formal basis of estimate, quantities, exclusions, appropriate contingency, escalation, taxes, logistics, commissioning and working capital.
Phase 1 should be redesigned to protect the productive core and defer components that are not critical to first revenue.
Promoter capital structure
71%
Founder equity indicated in the model. The dossier did not contain equivalent evidence of an executable funds commitment.
Founder equity
31,5M
Equipment leasing
8,9M
Incentives
4,0M
Return integrity
Excel calculates.
The investor validates.
The original model cash flows imply an IRR far above the narrative IRR. The discrepancy must be reconciled before institutional circulation.
Concentrated revenue
Nutra represents approximately 89% of cumulative five-year revenue.
Missing working capital
Receivables, inventory, payables, imports and the customs cycle are not adequately modelled.
Zero-cost energy
Solar and BESS reduce cost but do not eliminate O&M, degradation, backup and replacements.
Investment gates
Each decision purchases risk reduction.
The stage-gate model prevents capital commitment before the project gains technical, commercial, regulatory and financial maturity.
Mobilise
Mandates, budget, governance and baseline.
Limited approvalValidate
FEED, market, capacity and regulation.
Critical stageContract
BoE, RFP, contracts and term sheets.
PendingBuild
Controlled drawdown against progress.
PendingOperate
Qualification, licences and launch.
Pending